Global Warming

     Questions about public opinion and press coverage of global warming will no doubt persist well into the twentieth century, the subject of political, journalistic and academic discourse. Like most public issues we face, global warming may not penetrate public opinion to its highest level until the crisis crashes down upon us. Unlike most theories and stories we face, if it is true--that is if global warming is for real--the implications are not only life threatening, but potentially species threatening. By our actions, or inaction, we could upset the very balance of the planet, herald in a new ice age, and go the way of the dodo and the dinosaurs. So it might be important that we get this one right. At the very least, we may face a continuation and worsening of the strange weather patterns and violent storms of the past few years. Each hurricane, tornado, flood and mudslide costs millions, even billions of dollars, the loss of human life, and diminishes biodiversity.

Linkages

     Journalists rely upon scientists and policy makers to provide reliable information on the problem. The public relies upon journalists to provide them with timely, accurate information on the issues. Policymakers act based on their perceptions of public opinion, from the news media and survey research. A breakdown in this process along the way could have catastrophic results.

     As Price concluded, there is a "close connection" between "public opinion" and "processes of discussion, debate, and collective decision making." The roots of public opinion run to its early history as a "political-philosophical concept."

Given these linkages, public opinion--whether viewed in philosophical, political, sociological, or psychological terms--remains fundamentally a communication concept . . . public debate occurs mainly by virtue of interactions between elite political actors and their attentive spectators, facilitated in several important ways by the press (p. 91).

     Media Coverage, Values and Politics

     A number of in-depth series have been produced by major newspapers and magazines, as well as public radio and commercial television stations, presenting by and large a balanced view of global warming. It is painted as a scientific controversy with potentially serious consequences, but always with its critics. Yet the danger alarm is being sounded only on the margins, mostly by environmental organizations on the political left, whose memberships tend to hold benevolent and universalist values for protecting the environment, a world of beauty, and unity with nature (Schwartz, 1994). That proearth world view is being effectively countered by the corporate elites on the right, who tend to value power, achievement, wealth, tradition, conformity and security. In many ways they have more influence on the policymaking process by virtue of their economic power. Studies have shown that members of Congress rarely vote against a financial contributor, unless they fear losing reelection (cite). Yet environmental groups have in recent years become somewhat effective at rallying a number of voters to the cause, and may have helped elect and reelect the Clinton-Gore ticket in 1992 and 1996, for instance. It will be interesting to see how Gore's environmentalism effects his run for president in 2000.

     Without conducting a complete content analysis--and no crystal ball to see the outcome of the global warming debate--it is impossible to report here how well the press is doing its job framing the global warming story, or whether the correct public policies are being sought. From my initial interpretive reading of the national and international coverage of the story, it appears that newspapers papers such as the New York Times and the Washington Post, and magazines such as New Scientist, do an excellent job of covering the issue from all sides. I suspect that smaller newspapers in more conservative markets, and local television news stations, do a less comprehensive job on a complex and controversial issue like global warming. It seems reasonable to conclude that the attentive and active publics are more likely to read the best newspapers and magazines, and therefore to be more informed on the issue, while the less active and attentive rely on hometown papers and TV for information, and are less well informed.

What We Know of Public Opinion

     It is clear that a substantial number of people are concerned about the global warming issue and its antecedents, in their lifetimes and that of their children. Yet fewer people are concerned about global warming than other, more immediate environmental problems, problems that are more salient and carry the perception of direct effects on individual health and welfare.

     Some identifiable segments of the public are more concerned than others: the young more than the old, women a little more than men, Easterners more than Southerners, Democrats more than Republicans. Some members of the public understand the problem, although many do not. Yet understanding is not directly correlated with concern. Good information as well as bad may sway the public to support government regulations to curb greenhouse gas emissions to curb global warming, while misinformation may sway a segment of the public not to support such measures.

     The good news is that survey research offers some hope that the enlightened and attentive publics, those knowledgeable about the problem, seem willing to support higher taxes to solve the problem, even to make personal sacrifices. The problem then becomes offering institutional mechanisms to allow people to get involved and help solve the problem. These would include a range of options, including but not limited to legislation, automobile inspection programs, cleaner burning fuels, slightly higher power bills, and slightly higher gas prices at the pump.

What We Can Expect

     As the evidence continues to mount that global warming is taking place, and the scientific consensus tightens on the subject, it is expected that press framing of the issue will continue to grow somber, the public will become more concerned, and policymakers will respond with rhetoric and regulations. Events and press coverage will drive the issue onto the public agenda, and the lack of pressing scientific findings and constant media messages about it will result in it falling off the public agenda. The issue may very well follow Down's issue-attention cycle. Global warming entered the pre-problem stage early in this century, and burst into the alarmed discovery stage in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Perhaps if the global warming treaty is signed and implemented, concerns will ease and the issue will drop from the press and public opinion polls--whether or not the problem is actually solved.

     The global warming problem also offers a unique opportunity to assess values and opinions across cultures. Unlike more localized social and environmental problems, if dramatic climate change does occur--due to global warming resulting from the burning of fossil fuels and emission of greenhouse gases--the effects will be felt around the world.

Research Needed

     What is needed at this time is a content analysis of media coverage of global warming, and a concurrant analysis of stakeholder messages, to see how the problem is being framed. Is the information being presented in newspapers and on television accurate? Is it objective, balanced, fair coverage? Or does it present a small minority of skeptical scientists on corporate payrolls in an equal light with the overwhelming majority of scientists who seem to support the dangers of global warming? Does it provide adequate mobilizing information or cues to allow citizens to participate in the debate?

     And in the spirit of consilience offered in the introduction, a synthesis of the interdisciplinary literature on the subject should be funded by the National Science Foundation or some other foundation to assess whether the issue is actually upon us. While this seems to be the mission of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, an independent academic assessment in the U.S. should be ongoing. Results should be communicated to the public via the news media, and that coverage should be monitored along with public opinion. Such a project would offer an outstanding opportunity to empirically assess the discursive process described for years by scholars in the social sciences.

Some Global Warming Links

Industrial Stakeholders Plan Conserted Attack Against Global Warming Treaty, the latest on the debate from the New York Times.

Convention on Climate Change
The official Kyoto conference Web site.

Carnegie Mellon University
An online brochure prepared by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University to explain the issue of global warming and climate change.

Cato Institute
Use the search feature on this free-market institute's Web site to find material related to global warming, or read this policy paper.

Union of Concerned Scientists
A fact sheet on climate change from the scientists who recently issued a call for action against global warming at the Kyoto conference.

Heartland Institute
This public policy think tank argues that there is no evidence to support drastic reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.

Sierra Club
Fact sheets from the environmental organization's Global Warming and Energy Campaign.

World Wildlife Federation
Country-by-country CO2 emissions, from the organization dedicated to conserving nature and ecological processes.

White House
Read about the Clinton administration's initiative on global climate change.

State Department
Read the five key principles of the U.S. Climate Change Plan, or review an archive of statements and remarks about climate change.

U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change
The text of the 1992 U.N. Convention that aimed to stabilize emissions of greenhouse gases, from the U.N. Secretariat for Climate Change.

Oslo Convention
The 1994 treaty on reducing sulphur emissions, from the U.N. Economic Commission for Europe.

Rio Declaration
The final declaration from the 1992 U.N. environmental conference, from the United Nations online archive.

For more global warming links, see the bibliography.

---

Copyright © Glynn R. Wilson, 1998.
All rights reserved.