Global Warming
Project Index:

Table of Contents
Introduction
Competing Ideas and Interest Groups
Assessments of Public Opinion
Diversity and Dynamics of Opinion
Conclusions
Bibliography
Biographical Note

Introduction

By Glynn R. Wilson

Revised May 2, 1998.


     Understanding the dynamics of social problems in human communication requires an analytical examination of the relationships between press coverage, public opinion, and policy formation. It is also important to understand how interested political players go about influencing the press, the public, and policy makers. When the problem involves complex scientific information and controversy--as most environmental issues do--social scientists should also bring to bear the best information from the natural sciences. In the dusk of the twentieth century, humankind is beginning to search for the dawn of the next in a more holistic approach to the problems of science. Earth scientists, for instance, are beginning to realize that environmental problems are best viewed from an ecosystem perspective rather than trying to save each individual endangered species one at a time. Social scientists are beginning to articulate a similar approach to the study of social problems. While it may be too soon to herald in a new Kuhnian paradigm (1996), an ecological-sociological theory is emerging (Machlis, et al.,1997; Force and Machlis, 1997).
The traditional academic divisions have played at intellectual balkanization, seeking advances in territory rather than a more inclusive paradigm that would be truly helpful to resource management professionals. Such a paradigm would be a new life science, one that treats the biosocial reality of human beings as a serious part of its approach toward ecosystem management . . . . Our hope is a fusion that transcends the arcane division of the biophysical and the sociocultural--one that is truly ecological (p. 348).

     E.O. Wilson of Harvard recently put forward one theoretical conception of how this process of enlightenment might work. The theory is called consilience, and is defined literally as a "jumping together" of knowledge across disciplines to "create a common groundwork of explanation" (March, 1998). In exerpts from the book Consilience: Unity of Knowledge, Wilson argues for a single class of explanation traversing the scales of space, time and complexity, uniting disparate facts by consilience, "the perception of a seamless web of cause and effect." The central idea of this world view "is that all tangible phenomena, from the birth of stars to the workings of social instututions, are based on material processes that are ultimately reducible . . . to the laws of physics." His concerns are the concentric circles between biology, environmental policy, ethics, and the social sciences. And while he admits that "virtually no maps exist" to show us the way back from the chaos of knowledge fragmentation that has occured since the dawn of the Enlightenment, Wilson rejects the postmodernist approach, but welcomes the criticism. He says by "plunging repeatedly into new terrain, the world will somehow become clearer and we will grasp the true strangeness of the universe. And the strangeness will all prove to be connected and make sense."

     In the interest of trying to make sense of public opinion processes on the issue of global warming, this study is an attempt to take that plunge into what will become a lifelong research agenda. The work begins with an examination of the available science on global warming and the policy initiatives already in place. That will be following in later sections by a look at competing ideas and interest groups, an assessment of public opinion, an explication of the diversity and dynamics of public opinion, and conclusions about how this process works on an issue like global warming. Suggestions for an ongoing program of research will also be made in the end, but first the science of global warming.

The Global Warming Problem

     Burning coal, oil and natural gas to heat our homes, power our cars, and light our cities produces carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, which get trapped in the atmosphere and reflect heat. While there are natural sources of these gases on the planet, the largest contributers by far in our times are polluting utilities and industries. Deforestation and clearing land for agriculture also contribute to the buildup of greenhouse gases. Over the past century, we released these emissions into the earth's atmosphere faster than natural processes could remove them. Atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases have climbed steadily in the twentieth century and are projected to continue going up in the twenty-first century as economies around the globe develop.

     Records of past climate going as far back as 160,000 years indicate a close correlation between the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and global temperatures. Computer simulations of the climate indicate that global temperatures will rise as atmospheric concentrations of CO2 increase. Climatic change is already underway, according to the 1995 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the most comprehensive and thoroughly reviewed assessment of climate change science ever produced, according to the Clinton White House initiative on climate change. The report represents the work of more than 2,000 of the world's leading climate scientists, and concludes that Earth has already warmed about 1o F over the last century. The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate, in spite of doubts raised by industrial stakeholders in the debate.

     Estimates show that global surface air temperature will increase another 2 - 6.5o F in the next 100 years. The difference in temperature from the last ice age to now is about 9o F. The best guess is that we will experience warming of about 3.5o F by 2100, which would be a faster rate than any experienced during the last 10,000 years, the period in which modern civilization developed.

     Warming of this magnitude could affect many aspects of our lives as it changes patterns of temperature and precipitation, leads to the melting of polar ice and rising sea levels, and alters the distribution of fresh water supplies. The impacts on our health, the vitality of forests and other natural areas, and the productivity of agriculture, are all likely to be significant.

     The latest evidence, from an article in the journal Nature by Michael Mann of the University of Massachusetts at Amherst, indicates that the years 1997, 1995 and 1990 were the warmest years in the Northern Hemisphere since Christopher Columbus discovered America (AP, April 22, 1998; Stevens, April 28, 1998). While thermometer readings only go back about 150 years, investigators are now looking at chemical evidence of climate change in marine fossils, coral, ancient ice, fossilized pollen in lake sediment, and growth rings in trees. Striking findings show that natural factors largely influenced climate prior to the 20th century, including changes in solar radiation and volcanic haze, but in this century, greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels appear to be the dominant influence.

     Background

     During the 1980s, scientific evidence about global climate change and its consequences led to growing concern among scientists, policy makers, and some members of the general public. Pollsters have conducted a number of surveys to assess public opinion on the issue. Even in the late 1990s, in the dusk of the twentieth century, scientists and activists continue to raise concerns about global warming, vying for space in the press and time on radio and TV, pressuring government agencies and politicians to respond.

     To sample some of the best press coverage of the issue, see the Washington Post series on Climate Change, produced during the past few months.

     This timeline of the global warming debate was adapted from an Associated Press version, which made it's way into the public domain through hundreds of newspapers and on-line on November 29, 1997.

Global Warming Debate Timeline

     As the risks of global climate change become increasingly apparent, the United Nations and the Clinton administration take the position that there is a genuine need to focus on actions to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and minimize the adverse impacts of a changing climate. A number of policy initiatives have begun to assess the global warming problem and propose potential solutions. The three main initiatives are described and linked here.

     Policy Initiatives

     In 1988, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) jointly established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess the situation. Scientists representing more than 150 countries independently and together assessed the available information on climate change and its environmental and economic effects and have provided the scientific understanding needed to help formulate responses. A series of reports, incorporating extensive peer review and a commitment to scientific excellence, have provided perhaps the most authoritative and comprehensive information available on the science of climate change. In 1996, the IPCC published its Second Assessment Report, which summarizes the most recent information on climate change science and the vulnerability of natural and socioeconomic systems.

     Established in 1989, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) leads climate change research in the U.S. Since its inception, the program has strengthened research on key scientific issues and has fostered improved understanding of Earth processes. New directions for the group include identifying and analyzing regional vulnerabilities to climate variability and climate change.

     In 1990, the United Nations (UN) General Assembly established the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The FCCC was adopted in 1992, and over 160 signatories have now become parties to the agreement. It was signed by former President Bush and ratified by the U.S. Senate in 1992. The ultimate aim is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human) interference with the climate system. This stabilization should be achieved within a time frame that (1) allows ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, (2) ensures that food production is not threatened, and (3) enables sustainable economic development to proceed.

     The next section takes an analytical look at competing ideas and interest groups involved in the global warming debate.


Copyright © Glynn R. Wilson, 1998.
All rights reserved.


Table of Contents | Competing Ideas and Interest Groups | Assessments of Public Opinion
Diversity and Dynamics of Opinion | Conclusions | Bibliography | Biographical Note